Throughout this text, we try not to offer too many modelling rules. Instead, the focus lies on techniques that readers will be able to put together as necessary to produce a good model of their particular problem. However, there are a few basic principles that are worth adhering to. Morgan and Henrion (1990) offer excellent "ten golden rules" in relation to quantitative risk and policy analysis. You might want to print these out as a big poster to put on your office's wall.
1. Do your homework with literature, experts and users.
2. Let the problem drive the analysis.
3. Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler.
4. Identify all significant assumptions.
5. Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategies.
6. Be explicit about uncertainties.
7. Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.
8. Iteratively refine the problem statement and the analysis.
9. Document clearly and completely.
10. Expose to peer review.
